A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
