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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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