Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
