War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Election materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is conducting a phased vote over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".

Shelley Dean
Shelley Dean

James is a tech analyst and writer passionate about digital transformation and productivity tools.